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2025년 12월 24일 (수) 09:51 기준 최신판

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The Russian economy has been dealing with growing headwinds this year: unruly inflation, a ballooning budget deficit – due in part to massive military spending – and shrinking revenues from oil and natural gas. [трипскан]

Economic growth has also slowed sharply. But the gathering economic storm is unlikely to bring President Vladimir Putin to the negotiation table anytime soon to end the war in Ukraine. Analysts say the Kremlin could weather it for many more years at the current pace of fighting and with existing Western sanctions in place. [trip scan]

“If you look at the economy itself, it’s not going to be that ultimate straw that breaks the camel’s back,” said Maria Snegovaya, a senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think tank. “It’s not catastrophic. It’s manageable.” [tripscan top]

Looking at the next three to five years, Russia could carry on fighting, she said, noting that it’s hard to make a reliable assessment beyond that.

And a contingent of exiled, anti-Putin Russian economists believes the war of attrition could continue even longer because the Kremlin’s ability to wage the war is “unimpeded by any economic constraints.”

Western sanctions have not inflicted enough pain on Russia’s energy-focused economy to change Moscow’s plans for the war, Richard Connolly at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) told CNN.

“As long as Russia’s pumping oil and they’re selling it at a fairly reasonable price, they have enough money to just muddle along,” said the senior fellow in international security at the UK-based think tank.

“I’m not saying it’s a really rosy picture for them, but they’ve got enough for the economy not to be a factor in Putin’s calculus when he’s thinking about the war,” Connolly added.

@@ 1번째 줄: / 1번째 줄: @@
 == tripscan top ==
-The government has largely avoided the kinds of protests seen during the wars in Chechnya and Afghanistan, when the families of conscripted soldiers from Russia’s and the Soviet Union’s poorer regions demanded an end to the conflicts.
+The Russian economy has been dealing with growing headwinds this year: unruly inflation, a ballooning budget deficit – due in part to massive military spending – and shrinking revenues from oil and natural gas.
-[[https://tripscan101.cc/ tripscan top]]
+[[https://tripscan60c.cc/ трипскан]]
-“I don’t think the regions would exercise any influence over sustaining the war, but the fact that you’re not seeing sort of outbursts of public protest – it relieves the pressure on Putin when he makes his decisions about what he’s going to do next,” Connolly said.
+Economic growth has also slowed sharply. But the gathering economic storm is unlikely to bring President Vladimir Putin to the negotiation table anytime soon to end the war in Ukraine. Analysts say the Kremlin could weather it for many more years at the current pace of fighting and with existing Western sanctions in place.
-[[https://tripscan101.cc/ trip scan]]
+[[https://tripscan60c.cc/ trip scan]]
-What the Kremlin may be cognizant of, experts say, is concerns about a large group of war veterans re-entering society – without jobs and many with expensive medical needs – if a peace agreement is reached.
+“If you look at the economy itself, it’s not going to be that ultimate straw that breaks the camel’s back,” said Maria Snegovaya, a senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think tank. “It’s not catastrophic. It’s manageable.”
-[[https://tripscan101.cc/ трип скан]]
+[[https://tripscan60c.cc/ tripscan top]]
-“It’s in Putin’s best interest to keep this war going, just from a domestic standpoint,” said Kimberly Donovan, the director of the Economic Statecraft Initiative at the Atlantic Council.
+Looking at the next three to five years, Russia could carry on fighting, she said, noting that it’s hard to make a reliable assessment beyond that.
-Sanctions evasion is costly
+And a contingent of exiled, anti-Putin Russian economists believes the war of attrition could continue even longer because the Kremlin’s ability to wage the war is “unimpeded by any economic constraints.”
-While the economic headwinds are manageable in the short term, the long term could be a different story. Russia has dipped heavily into its sovereign wealth fund, which a recent Atlantic Council report said creates “new trade-offs for the Kremlin,” as the cushion that once insulated the general public from the war’s costs shrinks.
-According to the Kyiv School of Economics Institute, the value of assets that are liquid, or easily converted into cash, in Russia’s National Welfare Fund has declined by 57% since the start of the war.
+Western sanctions have not inflicted enough pain on Russia’s energy-focused economy to change Moscow’s plans for the war, Richard Connolly at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) told CNN.
-As the fund is drained, “it is difficult to imagine a scenario in which the Russian government can sustain its current defense expenditures without social spending cuts that are pervasive and visible to the general population,” the Atlantic Council report said.
+“As long as Russia’s pumping oil and they’re selling it at a fairly reasonable price, they have enough money to just muddle along,” said the senior fellow in international security at the UK-based think tank.
+“I’m not saying it’s a really rosy picture for them, but they’ve got enough for the economy not to be a factor in Putin’s calculus when he’s thinking about the war,” Connolly added.